December 13th – Mini Update

Hi All,

Just a quickie update on the weather front heading our way for Friday.

My hunch on Monday appears to be correct and this looks to be falling as rain rather than snow during Friday morning / afternoon, though initially there may be a brief period of snow as it hits that cold air over the south-west of England and Wales in particular.

The rain is due to reach Kerry around about midnight and then move across Ireland during the night. It’ll then push into the south-west of England and Wales early doors (7 ish) and move across country (north and east) through the morning, reaching ‘The Smoke’ and The Midlands around lunchtime, by which time it’ll have cleared most of Ireland (except the north) and by late afternoon it’ll be into the lowlands of Scotland, again falling as snow initially before turning to rain. Air temperatures will begin to rise with the advent of the rain to 6 – 8°by midday, so a rapid thaw will set in. The rain will take the best part of the day to clear the U.K and fortunately will be followed by a relatively dry Saturday before more rain arrives over Ireland and the north-west of England / Scotland for Sunday.

Agronomic Notes

The problem with this temperature rise and rain combination, is that it is falling onto very frozen ground, with sand-based greens in particular frozen to a depth of 3-4″, by my reckoning. The rain will cool quickly as it hits the soil, so will only slowly thaw out the rootzone below. This means a high likelihood of flooding for all areas until the rootzone is thawed through, preceded by that very tricky initial phase when the surface becomes unstable as the thawed surface rootzone slides across the frozen rootzone beneath.

This intial phase represents potentially high damage to the grass sward with root shear, and in addition will also present a health and safety issue with a very unstable surface underfoot. My advice would be to keep golfers / players on temporary greens where practically feasible until enough of the surface has thawed out to impart stability underfoot. It will probably be pretty academic advice anyway because the rain could be reasonably heavy in places (12mm ish is my best guess) so if this is falling onto frozen ground, it’ll probably close the course itself due to flooding. (but you never know with the golfing fraternity)

The good news is that after this initial period, we look to be into a spell of mild, westerlies, so no White Christmas (damn and blast to my bets on Paddy Power), with little in the way of frost. There will be rain though 🙁

All the best.

Mark Hunt

8 thoughts on “December 13th – Mini Update

  1. Scott Litchfield

    Mark
    As a newbie to your weather blog, Unfortunatly so far you have been bang on everytime. Look forward to reading what we have install over the next few weeks. Great work.
    Scott

    Reply
    1. mark.hunt Post author

      Hi Scott,

      Cheers for the feedback, I think my outlook has been a bit ropey on a couple of occasions 🙂 and I’m still crossing my fingers for Christmas. I just need 1 flake to fall in London and I won’t be so concerned about January’s credit card bill, as I put a bet on Paddy Power back in September). So far it’s 2-1 in my favour vs. Paddy Power, but it’s looking tight this year…

      Reply
  2. Carl Crocher

    Hi Mark,
    Can only reiterate the comments of my colleagues, thanks for the effort, have lost count of the times I have quoted your blog to my members this year. Forecasting is what it is, & here on the Wirral it is especially difficult, sandwiched as we are between the Mersey & the Dee. Look forward to the blogs & insight, may you continue your enjoyment & input through 2013, with hopefully some good weather to forecast for us all. Seasons Greetings & thanks.
    Carl

    Reply
    1. mark.hunt Post author

      Hi Carl,

      Thanks for the feedback and I appreciate what you’re saying about forecasting accuracy for your location.
      Anytime you add estuaries and nearby coastline in the mix, things get really tricky, especially rainfall.
      Here’s looking forward to a better 2013 weather-wise !!!

      Reply
  3. Laurence McCrory

    Hi Mark

    Just a quick note to say Thankyou so much for your invaluable forecasting, it serves as a very useful tool. I appreciate the effort that you put into the blogs and they have become part of my decision making at the start of the week. Also Thankyou to the Headland team for their solid support and advice.

    Thanks again, merry Christmas and all the best for 2013

    Laurence

    Reply
    1. mark.hunt Post author

      Cheers Laurence, it’s become an integral part of my Monday morning regime 🙂 and one I enjoy.
      Just about everything you / we guys do is ultimately weather-related, so the stakes are high and chuck in the
      unpredictable / extreme nature of our weather now and that makes life hard, just look at today as an example.
      Thanks again for your kind comments and feedback on our company, we try our best at the end of the day.
      Mark

      Reply

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