After another week when it seemed easier to rain than do anything else weather-wise, we are in for a little bit of a respite I am pleased to say. Fishing a rapidly rising River Trent at the weekend I wondered if the weather gods were trying to tell me where at least two Barbel were….Pity I can’t cast that far 🙂
So we have a drier outlook this week for some of us, but it won’t be dry everywhere it’s more the amounts of rain that you may or may not get will be lighter and they’ll be a lot less about 🙂 The south will also pick up more in the way of heat so we’ll see some good drying weather this week as well which will help to get areas under control, get bunkers re-instated and some dry cuts in. This may only be a brief respite though as from the weekend on is looking changeable in the west and north.
Ok let’s put some detail on it then ;
General Weather Situation
So Monday starts off dry and bright for many but it won’t last for long in Ireland because a heavy rain front is likely to be pushing into west Munster / Connacht and moving across Ireland during the morning. By late morning this rain will be into Leinster and also South West Scotland with some additional showers likely across North East Scotland. South and east of this looks like being a dry, bright and sunny day with some decent temperatures. By late afternoon that rain stretches across in a line from Ireland to the north of England level with Newcastle. Above this line, it’ll be wet with frequent showers, some of them heavy. Below this line we’ll see some light showers into West Wales and more in the way of cloud cover building in the west in general but it should be a dry one. For the south and south east it should stay dry, warm and sunny the entire day. Temperature-wise, warm across Ireland and the south of England with temperatures hitting the low twenties in the latter, but cooler for Northern England and Scotland with mid-high teens the order of the day. Winds will be light to moderate and south westerly.
Overnight into Tuesday we see that rain sink south and eastwards clearing Ireland and Scotland and pushing into Wales and the north of England. It may get heavy for a time along the north east coast of England early doors before pushing off into The North Sea in time for a clear picture to emerge for all areas during the morning rush hour. A change in the wind direction to north west will mean that the rain will make a re-appearance across the north east coast of Scotland and during the morning will move down the coast into north east England. Elsewhere for Ireland, Wales and England it looks a dry and warm day though feeling a little cooler because of the change in wind direction. So hazy sunshine and sunny intervals likely for the entire day for Tuesday in these areas with temperatures ranging from mid-teens in Scotland to high teens perhaps breaking into the twenties in the south of England.
Moving onto Wednesday we have another largely dry day on the cards for most areas with nice settled conditions and some warmth building in the south of the U.K. There is a risk of some rain across Donegal and possible the south west and north west coasts of Scotland later in the afternoon but at this stage it is projected to miss most of you guys. We will see more in the way of hazy cloud for the west and central areas but further south they’ll be longer spells of sunshine and that will allow the temperature to push up into the low twenties I think across the south of England. Further north and west I reckon we’ll be more likely to get mid to high teens with winds light and from the north west.
For Thursday we have a very similar picture for most of the U.K, warm, dry and settled. Of course there’s always a fly in someones ointment and here it looks like Ireland may see a weak rain front push in late morning to affect the west coast of Munster, Connacht and Donegal. It’ll be slow moving though and quite a weak one so amounts should be light. (famous last words) Further south and east we have a dry, sunny and warm picture with perhaps more in the way of cloud cover for Scotland. With the wind swinging round to a light to moderate south westerly, it is likely to mean it’ll be a degree or two warmer on Thursday so expect high teens to low twenties in the sunshine. By late afternoon that slow moving rain front will be across most of Ireland and here it’ll be duller and with the rain I expect temperatures to be down in the mid-teens I am afraid. By Thursday evening most of that rain will have cleared Ireland and it’ll be into the north west of Scotland.
Rounding out the week we continue that north west split with cloud and spells of light rain likely for Ireland and the west of Scotland, particularly the north west. South and east of this we again have a much nicer picture with settled dry and sunny weather and that warmth continues to build nicely with low twenties likely in the south of England. So cloudy with light rain in the morning for Ireland and the west of Scotland and by the afternoon this rain front will be pushing across most of Scotland and intensifying as it does so. So for Friday evening we will see a potentially wet end to the week for Ireland, central and north east Scotland. Further south we look to remain dry through all of Friday with long spells of warm, settled weather.
Onto the weekend and my last in the U.K before heading off to Alaska so how’s it looking ?
Saturday sees a change to the weather as an Atlantic low pressure is due to start to exert its influence so that means we move to a more breezy and unsettled picture with a strengthening south westerly wind likely. At this stage it’s tricky to say where the rain is most likely to be other than west and north so I think you’ll see an unsettled day across Ireland, the north of England and Scotland with rain showers rattling through from the off on Saturday. Further south it’s likely to be drier but still there’s a risk of rain pushing in on that moderate to gusty, south westerly wind with only the far south and south east more likely to miss the worst. Let’s hope so for the guys and girls down at Wimbledon because I think they’ve had more than enough practise with the covers and roof over the last week !
For the west and north I think it’ll remain cool with mid-teens under that rain front but further south it’ll remain warmer and that extra heat may trigger some thunderstorms on Saturday evening as moist air and warmth collide. Sunday looks drier at this stage for Wales and the south of the U.K but I am afraid there’s still likely to be plenty of rain associated with that low pressure for Ireland, the north of England and Scotland. Temperature-wise I think we’ll be high teens away from the rain and mid-teens under it.
Well as we move into July there is still no sign of the jet stream ‘wanting’ to assume its normal mid-summer position above the U.K and Ireland. Instead it is tracking south of the U.K, in other words sitting lower than normal (which it has been doing for most of the year) and this will allow low pressure to influence the weather again going through next week I am afraid. I’d love to be able to write something different believe me, but it is what it is and it’ll be what it’ll be….
So next week starts unsettled for the north and west particularly with that low pressure set to pass across the U.K during Monday. Tuesday looks a settled day sandwiched in-between two low pressure systems but for Ireland it’s possible that the 2nd part of the day will be wet as a new, intense low pressure pushes in. This low pressure is likely to track south so the heavy rain associated with it is more likely to affect The Midlands down I think on Tuesday night / Wednesday next week rather than the north of England and / or Scotland. The arrival of this new low pressure system will also drag in a northerly airstream so a much cooler feel to the weather from mid-week, next week as the winds swing round to the north and intensify. I think we are set to keep that northerly airstream through Thursday and Friday though it’ll gradually decrease in strength and the weather will quieten down somewhat.
If I did a bit of ‘Mystic Megging’ I think thereafter we could see an Atlantic high pressure move in to dominate the weather so that may mean an increasingly dry and therefore warm picture for the 3rd week of July.
Ok since it’s the start of the month we have a lot of GDD data to go through so first off thanks to everyone for taking the time to send it in, without it this blog is a much worse place so thanks for that…That said this one has taken me 7 hours to compile 🙁
The first thing that springs out of you from the GDD data is the monthly total of 277.5 for this location (Thame). It ranks as the joint highest figure for June (tied with 2014) and affirms June as a very high growth month. Let’s see how we look at other locations..
Looking at the data for June you can see that the growth has been very consistent but the Surrey and Bristol locations have experienced the highest amount off GDD, just short of 300 for the month which is extremely high (more of that later)
Valentia still leads the way courtesy of their mild winter and spring start to the year but if you compare all Irish GDD monthly totals for June you can see for once you’ve all had pretty much the same temperature with the Bray location the lowest monthly figure at 238 and Claremorris making up for a dismal 2015 with the highest total for June at 257, similar to the U.K totals.
So with such a good GDD month it should be all plain sailing right ?
Well wrong actually because it wasn’t just plenty of GDD we had in June, we also had rainfall and that’s what made turf maintenance such a headache…
To look into June in more detail I’m going to pull up some Growth Potential and Rainfall data from different locations..
Why June has been a difficult month for turfgrass maintenance, especially for England…
So first off here is a look at how rainfall and Growth Potential panned out during June for a number of U.K and Irish locations…
These are available to download as a pdf here
So what has made June such a difficult month to maintain grass ?
Well it’s the combination of a high growth rate, frequent rainfall (some of it torrential in nature) and a lack of drying days in-between. If you look at the graph above for the Thame location you can see that the grass growth rate as denoted by Growth Potential ran pretty close to 1.0 all through the month. In fact the total for the month was 25.22 which if you take into account the theoretical maximum from a G.P perspective over 30 days is 30 means that the average growth rate was 0.84 per day. So grass was growing at 84% of its maximum throughout the whole month.
Now normally this means we have to allocate a lot of resources to keeping on top of that growth, but that’s where the 2nd buggeration factor comes in…that of rainfall….
For this location, like the others above, you can see that the 2nd part of June was brutal with high rainfall totals and very few drying days in-between, so getting a dry cut was next to impossible and even getting machinery out there to cut was difficult during this period without turning the golf course or sports pitch into a mudbath. You can see that from the 12th of June to the 30th of June there was only 1 day when it wasn’t raining at the Thame location and during that period the total amount of rain that fell was 100mm or 4 inches in plain language.
Just to get that in perspective that means if you measured out a square with each side equal to a metre, an inch of rain would equate to that square having 25.4 litres of water falling on it or 5.6 gallons in old mans language. Now in the last part of June, the Thame location had 4 inches of rain so that means 101.6 litres of water (22.4 gallons) falling on every metre square of turf on the site. Most water butts are 200L in volume so this would mean half filling a water butt and then tipping it out on a square metre of turf, now that’s a lot of water and no surprise that the soil becomes saturated.
Of course just cutting grass isn’t the total function of a turfgrass maintenance team, there’s also those nice things called bunkers to maintain 🙁
You know the ones don’t you ?……. those kind of bunkers that are designed by an architect for ‘x’ people to maintain but you only have ‘y’ available and where ‘y’ is a much, much smaller number than ‘x’
Expectations and Reality – Why are they out of sync ?
Some of you may have caught up with an article I put together recently in the June edition of Greenkeeper International (You should be able to find it in the Back issue section as a downloadable pdf here).
In it I talked about why last winter was so difficult from a golf course and sports pitch maintenance perspective and one of the main problems I highlighted was a lack of drying days.
The same applies to June this year for any number of locations across the U.K and Ireland and specifically highlights the fact that once our turf surface becomes wet it cannot dry down fast enough before the next rain arrives unless it has sufficient dry-down time in-between. A lot of the turfgrass rootzones (and bunkers for that matter) that we maintain weren’t designed to cope with 25mm plus of moisture in a single day let alone 42mm as the Thame location received on the 16th of June.
In addition, to keep rootzones performing to their maximum potential we need to aerate (at varying depths), topdress and control surface organic matter but all of these operations are ‘seen’ as disruptive by golfers / players alike and more often than not it has to be said, by management.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, it remains one of the hardest facts to communicate that in order to keep a turfgrass system running at optimum we need to perform cultural practices and if we don’t then we run into problems with poor performance. It’s like running a car, it needs to have routine services to keep it going and if we ignore this then eventually it’ll break down.
Well our turfgrass systems are breaking down. in some cases because resource isn’t being allocated to the job in hand and because our weather patterns are making even basic maintenance more difficult.
So why when everyone can see when its raining, when everyone can see how the grass verges have grown so high that you can’t see clearly at junctions or on a roundabout, can they not understand that the same issues affect golf course or sports pitch maintenance ?
I think part of the problem is that we don’t measure these things and use that data to make sound arguments. There’s a saying I heard on Farming Today the other Saturday morning as I was getting ready for a spot of early morning fly fishing…”If you don’t measure it, you can’t manage it”
And so if we don’t measure, we can’t communicate facts backed up by data and so the debate becomes subjective, one based on opinions “It’s been very wet”….”Well it hasn’t been that wet has it ?”….Opinions are dangerous and as the old saying goes “Everyone’s got one…”
Ok off my Soapbox because I’m gettign vertigo and time to tackle an ever-expanding TTD list.
Enjoy a drier week for some of you…