When you start the week looking at a Weathercheck forecast like the one below you won’t need me to tell you that we are still in the same pattern that started towards the end of September.
We are now into our 7th week of unsettled weather and heavy rain and to be honest there is still no break in this pattern for the foreseeable.
No re-alignment of the jet stream and no blocking high popping up to give us some respite. As you can see from the graphic above, the jet stream is sitting south of the U.K & Ireland and that’s pretty much where it has been for 6 weeks now. This allows low pressure systems forming over The Atlantic to continually swing in from the south and west, drop into the trough and dump heavy rain on us. It’s mild as well but we will get progressively cooler.
‘Beast from the East’ I heard mentioned at the weekend in the tabloids…yeah right, pretty difficult when its currently 6°C and raining north of Moscow 🙂 You can see the tail end of the jet stream is pushing that mild weather further north into Scandinavia and Russia so the cold isn’t going to come from there at the moment. More tabloid hype to sit alongside that which we are getting from the politicians currently. I mean really ?
General Weather Situation
As predicted last week, we start this week on Monday with a low sitting over the U.K and Ireland. During the course of this morning this will pull in heavy rain across Scotland from the east and also down the east coast of Ireland with Leinster set for some heavy stuff. Further south and west the low is pushing showers on a light to moderate wind up from The South West / South Wales / South Coast and moving them inland. Already there’s some significant showers pushing up across northern England. Now not everywhere will have rain, The Midlands and further east should miss a chunk of the showers though the risk increases through the day. Through the afternoon we will see more consolidation of that rain along the south of the U.K, north of England, Scotland and east / Midlands of Ireland. A cool day particularly on the west / north side of that low where the wind will be north / easterly respectively and keep temperatures into the high single figures. Further south on that slightly milder wind we will be 10-12°C
Overnight into Tuesday and that low pressure is sinking south and eastwards onto the continent so a drier day is on the cards but not everywhere. It’s likely that a band of rain associated with that low will lie across The Midlands and North Wales and this will track south and east through the course of the day bringing rain to those areas as it does so. So the threat of rain on Tuesday is more along the eastern coastline of the U.K from The North East down through Lincolnshire, East Anglia and The South East. Feeling cooler on Tuesday as that low sinks south and pulls in a keen north wind behind it so 9-11°C likely.
Onto mid-week and Wednesday sees the next rain fronts pushing in from The Atlantic into the west of Ireland and tracking eastwards through the course of the morning. By lunchtime that rain will be across most of Ireland into the western coastline of the U.K. From here it’ll slowly move inland but fizzle out as it does so leaving a drier day for central and eastern parts of the U.K. The same for Scotland with showers across the north-west failing to make progress inland. Away from the western rain it’ll feel a good bit cooler on Wednesday with temperatures 2-3°C down on the start of the week. This is because of the colder air mass associated with the new low pressure pushing in rather than the wind direction. Talking about the wind, it will be light for the first half of the day, freshening from the south later. So a cool dull day with only a little in the way of sunshine pushing through and temperatures down at 7-9°C.
Thursday sees the low pressure move eastwards overnight pulling that cold rain across Wales, The South West and into most areas of the U.K. Now this rain is cold so over higher grounds it will fall as sleet overnight. By the morning rush hour the centre of the low will be across The Isle of Wight leaving a dry region across central England. Further north this low will be pushing rain and wintry showers across Scotland, The Midlands, The Peak District and Pennines and down the east coast of Ireland again with some white stuff for The Wicklow mountains I reckon. As we progress through the morning the centre of the low tracks barely 50 miles along the south coast and so that means a continuation of the rain / sleet for most areas pushed long on a cold easterly wind turning from the north for the west wide of the country and Ireland. Not a nice day it has to be said for some but like the beginning of the week there will be gaps in the rain fronts so some areas may not receive much rain at all. Remaining on the cool side though with those easterly / northerly winds so 7-9°C looks to be about right. It is November after all.
Closing out the week on Friday we see that low still just across the Kent coast and that’s a feature of a trough pattern in the jet stream as we know, slow-moving weather systems. Well this one will nearly be east of the U.K & Ireland by dawn and so that means it’ll be taking the majority of its rain elsewhere. As with earlier in the week, the threat of rain / wintry showers will now be more for the north-east, Lake District and south-east of England as that low drifts slowly away into The Channel. So a largely dry day away from that eastern rain for Ireland, Scotland, England and Wales with the sun even popping through across Ireland and the west. Further east will see more in the way of clouds and with the low to the east of us, a cool northerly wind for The Midlands and central areas. Scotland also looks to have a largely dry day on Friday with the low sitting at the other end of the country (the benefit of a low-lying jet stream). Remaining cool though with 7-9°C the new norm.
With no change in the weather patterns at the time of writing this blog, it is no surprise that the outlook for the weekend is unsettled as a band of rain crosses Ireland overnight and pushes eastwards across the U.K during the course of Saturday. Stretching from Scotland down to the south coast it’s a case of if you are dry, you won’t be for long on Saturday as that rain moves eastwards. Ireland will see more in the way of showers behind that rain front through the course of Saturday. I’d love to say it’ll be feeling milder but it’s unlikely with temperatures remaining down in the mid-single figures despite a westerly wind direction. Sunday sees a new deep low pressure push into Ireland bringing heavy rain and strong winds with it. Later this will move into The South West and South Wales / Wales edging slowly eastwards through the course of Sunday. It looks like the rain associated with this front will be heavy. That said central and eastern areas may avoid the worst until later on Sunday evening / night. Similar temperatures to Saturday, 7-9°C with a freshening south / south-westerly wind for most.
So no surprises then that we will start the week with an intense low pressure sat over the U.K, so that means windy and very wet, perhaps the wettest period of next week will be at the start. So Monday and into the first part of Tuesday looks very wet, especially for the south and west of the U.K and possibly the south-east corner of Ireland. The northern part of this low pressure will be across Scotland and the Borders. Tuesday could be a little drier for eastern and central areas but it’s only a brief respite before more rain pushes through from the east on Wednesday and particularly Thursday looks wet for the southern half of the U.K. The end of the week and weekend look a little drier as the low slides away but already a new low is pushing into the Bay of Biscay. With predominantly easterly and northerly winds associated with the jet stream and position of the low pressure systems, it’ll remain on the cool side.
As it is the first blog of November, here’s a look back at October from a GDD / Rainfall perspective.
GDD October 2019 – Thame Location
That’s the benefit of doing this kind of thing you know. I was wondering to myself whilst fishing yesterday whether this autumn / winter is following the same pattern as 2015 when the jet stream dropped southwards and we just got wet and windy weather for practically most of the winter ?
Well if you compare you can see that the GDD for October 2015 was 147 and for 2019, it was 130. It may come as a shock but that’s nearly the lowest October GDD we have recorded going back to 2010, so 2019 broke the mold in terms of warm October months.
Good news though from a disease perspective 🙂
Cumulatively as well, 2019 isn’t going to be breaking any records I think and courtesy of the cooler, wetter June / October we experienced, it’s falling well behind 2018 and 2017. That’s what makes our climate such a hard one to call in terms of highlighting consistent weather trends.
We are an island, we sit in the path of the jet stream and therefore variability in our climate is the norm.
GDD / Rainfall Comparison – U.K Locations
Not many contributors this month, probably my fault for being a bit hit & miss lately with my blog publishing but thanks to those that managed to send some data through. The story of October 2019 is definitely rainfall and the fact that in both the U.K and Irish locations, the south and south-west were in the firing line with roughly a 2x rainfall volume vs. their eastern counterparts. For some reason, my GDD in Market Harborough was way lower than the average, maybe it is a reflection of the shaded location of my weather station and the fact that I’m a tight arse with my central heating 🙂 100+mm in any month though is a wet one but with declining E.T to dry us down it isn’t surprising that we are soaking.
GDD / Rainfall Comparison – Irish Locations
As mentioned above, you can see the rainfall bias for the south west and southerly locations in Ireland. This is because the low position of the jet stream has meant more of the low pressure systems are swinging down into The Bay of Biscay and so the rainfall effect is more south and south-west rather than north and west as we have traditionally seen. I’m not saying of course that the north-west of either Ireland or the U.K is dry, just that the south and south-west are also getting a pasting. With that variability in rainfall comes variability in GDD because the wettest locations are also the mildest ones posting high GDD numbers for the month. Big variability in the effect of altitude as well when you look at Killiney vs. Dublin (Casement)
So why are we so wet ?
Despite the type of stats I have documented there are plenty of people who still ask why we are so wet. It’s almost as though they live in a hermetically sealed container !
One of the sheets on my GDD spreadsheet is labelled charts and if you scroll down you’ll find some data like this ;
This is for a location in North Devon and looking at the rainfall total is one thing but when you look at the number of wet days vs. dry, that to me is the eye opener.
29 days of October have recorded rainfall with just 2 dry days !
Here’s another way to look at it….
I think this is a smart graph, but then I am biased 🙂
The above shows the last 3 months at The Oxfordshire and tells a convincing story….
Despite the fact that it is in a reasonably dry part of the country, you can see how the rainfall totals are increasing each month and how the E.T and the amount of solar energy the grass plant / ground is receiving is heading in the opposite direction.
So we are receiving less warmth as defined by solar energy with approximately 34% of the solar radiation in October as September. Less heat tends to means less E.T and indeed for October we are only 43.5% of September’s E.T figure. If you look at the rainfall and E.T in September, they were pretty equal but in October, the rainfall exceeded the E.T by nearly 48 mm.
So surfaces tend to be water-logged and with low E.T levels are slow to dry down.
What we need is a cold, stable high pressure to give us some respite but currently it isn’t anywhere to be seen. Maybe better news next week ?
All the best for the coming week.
So Mr Punter that’s why we are wet…..For my location it’s slightly better, 21 days out of 31 were wet in October.