Hi Guys & Girls 🙂
Just thought I’d send a quick update to my usual Monday morning diatribe concerning next week’s weather. Well it’s good news, particularly for those guys getting battered today in Scotland and the north. I was just speaking to my Christmas Cheese supplier on Arran and they have no power on the island and no ferries are able to sail, so it must be pretty bad up there.
If you recall from Monday, the weather was looking milder, but potentially wetter for next week, with constant wind, but it’s changing with high pressure potentially re-establishing itself in a similar (but not the same) position as mid-November. (see below)
The position is important because as you can see from the improvised graphic, it should pull warm, drier air up from the Mediterranean on a southerly / south-easterly air flow.
So yet again, we see that long-term trends are changeable, long-term with weather forecasting means 10 days, that’s your limit, but accuracy drops sharply after 7 days. I expect temperatures to hold up next week, but then colder air to push in on the run up to Christmas, just a hunch at the moment..
I’m sending this update through because it means you should get a dry week, next week with some good potential spray windows for applying Pre-Christmas turf tonic, fungicide applications if that’s in the plan. It also means it’ll be another good week for winter project work, which again I know is important to some of you.
Increased air temperature = Increased Disease Pressure
On the flip-side, (and yes isn’t there always a flip side) it does mean that we’ll be seeing some warmer air, particularly for the south and west side of the U.K and Ireland (I think) which means increased disease pressure for sure. I’ve already seen quite a bit of active Fusarium around this week with mycelium along the circumference as this image shows.(developed on the back of milder night temperatures late last week, as correctly predicted by GDD).
So keep an eye out, particularly from Sunday onwards and particularly on older, larger patches of disease which will have a potentially higher population present on the periphery, these can sometimes ‘flare up’ again in such conditions. It may not necessarily be on your ‘indicator greens’ either, watch the drier ones as well….
Ciao for now