March 25th
Hi All,
I’m sitting here looking out at 4″ of snow that has now froze in these biting easterly winds and wondering if it’s just a bad dream and I’ll wake up some time 🙁
One year ago to the day nearly, we were sitting under a protective peak in the jet stream that had provided us warm, dry weather for most of the winter, but we were desperately short of water. At the beginning of April, 2012, that peak shifted and was replaced by a trough, the rest is history, so by Easter 2013, it’ll be a year of a fixed weather pattern and I for one are beginning to wonder if this change is permanent, so I’m going to try and find out this week, by talking to the scientists who are studying it.
So is there any sign of a change in this jet -stream pattern ?, not really, but there is a sign of slightly milder weather on the horizon, that said, it was supposed to arrive by mid-week, this week, but I think it’s arrival will be delayed now till over Easter, which is going to present a big problem to all of us with snow cover now, in terms of ground conditions and of course, lost business-wise. The south and west of the country seems to have escaped the worst, with the snow line starting between Northampton and Oxford and extending north, west and eastwards, so if you have no snow cover now, thank your lucky stars.
General Weather Situation
As you’re probably well aware by watching the news, we have a high pressure sitting over Northern Europe and this is pushing an easterly airstream over the U.K and Ireland. Those winds are biting cold and even now the windchill in my protected location is -3.8°C, but I’ve had -7°C reported for Thame, Oxfordshire. For Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, we have a fixed situation, with a cold, dry, scenario, and from The Midlands north and east, little prospect of a thaw because of the windchill during the day. Further south and west, I think you’ll see a slow thaw for a couple of hours during the day. There’s a risk of some lighter snow showers mid-week in the north-east of England and Scotland and maybe also a chance of some snow coming off the continent into the south-east overnight Wednesday, but that’s a tricky one to call. For Ireland, a similar picture, brighter on Monday, but with more cloud cover and the risk of some light snow showers mid-week along the coast of Leinster. For Thursday, we have a similar picture, but with lighter winds, so the temperature will creep up a little allowing a slight thaw. There will be a chance of snow showers along the east and south-east coast blowing in off The North Sea. By the end of the week, there’s a battle going on between this stubborn cold air system and milder air from the west / south and it’s really tricky to say how it’s going to go. Certainly there’s a risk of snow initially as the 2 weather systems meet. For Ireland and the west, the wind will switch to the south by the end of the week and this will bring temperatures up, but it’ll be a slow affair. For the rest of the U.K, I don’t think that change will take place till into the Easter weekend and it may well end up that the winds are south-easterly, rather than southerly, so milder, but not mild if you get my drift. So for Easter weekend, I’ll stick my neck out and say we’ll be milder, with a southerly airstream and hopefully we’ll lose the overnight frosts, this is more likely over Ireland and the west side of the U.K, than it is the east, where you’re closer to the cold ridge of weather. They’ll be some showers around in the west, possibly heavy down in south-west Munster into Easter Sunday, but at this stage it’s not looking too bad as these should clear through quickly on a brisk wind.
Weather Outlook
A tricky one I think and much depends on how the battle shapes up between the milder westerly air and the entrenched, colder continental air. So rather than stick a meteorological finger in the air at the start of the week, I’m going to do an update on Thursday on how we’re looking for the weekend and the week following Easter.
Agronomic Notes
Not really a shed load to say here that I didn’t say last week in my mega-blog. Obviously a lot of you are either under snow or frozen solid. Disease-wise, we actually don’t want a rapid thaw because that’ll bring flooding and a potential increase in disease activity as soil temperatures rise.
If you’re looking to guesstimate how much moisture you’ve received in snowfall:rainfall, the rough conversion is 10″ of snow = 1″ of equivalent rainfall, less so if the snow is dry and powdery. (10″ = 0.7″ for powder apparently)
I’ll sign off this rather short blog quickly because I can see the BT van coming up the street and he’s going to render me wireless-less for a time I’m sure and I wanted to get this one out.
Grin and bear it for another week I’m afraid, I wish I could report otherwise, but let’s see what Thursday’s update brings…
Mark Hunt
Roy Charman. Devonshire Park Tennis Centre. Eastbourne.
So, what happened to ‘Global warming’? Sorry Mark, That just popped out. Have a Happy(but cold) Easter. Would be great to see you this year. Regards, Roy.
mark.hunt
Hi Roy,
Global warming is linked to this weather pattern I’m afraid….indirectly that is…..
There are 2 drivers behind our changing weather, but primarily it’s down to a re-alignment of the sub-polar Jetstream.
Low U.V radiation from the sun is heating up the planet less at the equator, coupled with a dramatic loss of sea ice at the Arctic pole due to global warming…net effect = less temperature difference between equator and pole = less energy transfer from equator to pole through Hadley and Ferrell cells = less energy into jet stream, so we get these massive meanders. We either sit in a trough which allows cold and wet air down (April 2012 to date) or we sit under a peak, which allows warm dry air up (Sept 2011 – Mar 2012)
Click here to see what the jet stream is doing, you’ll see it’s running about 1,500 miles lower than it should be…
https://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream;sess=
Is it going back….don’t think so….
So climate change and global warming it very definitely is, except no-one predicted the effect on the sub-polar jet stream, now they’re trying to figure out if the shift is permanent.
I’ll ring you tomorrow to make an appointment, you’ve been VERY patient 🙂
Mark
Adi Porter
We have seen a gradual thaw today at Greetham, to the point of seeing some grass surfaces, but in other areas we have 2-3 feet drifts, so I won’t be able to open until these areas thaw. Not looking good for any golf over the Easter break, so I have got everything crossed as we lost a lot of revenue last week, so please not the bank holiday wk end as well.
mark.hunt
Hi Adi,
Just what I was thinking mate, I’ve seen more thaw than I expected today given the windchill so I’m hoping that the gradual rise in temperatures will keep this going, but it’s only a gradual increase and not really gathering any temp till the weekend. Looks pretty grim, fingers crossed that mild weather wins the day and comes earlier, but I’m not holding my breath.
Mark
Andy
Sorry mark put wrong email. Andy
mark.hunt
Again a tricky one, says someone who spent 2 hours on Saturday salting all the footpaths into town because the council never bother and watched it thaw away naturally on alot of the areas 🙁
i.e my point being you can spend alot of time and Mother Nature does it for you anyway, though this week, the thaw will be slow. That said I’ve been very surprised by how much has thawed today in those biting winds. There’s pro’s and con’s obviously, but with business revenue so badly down, I think it’s a case of needs must with a number of clubs. You can damage the surface of the grass with the physical removal, so this takes some care, but if you reduce the snow cover, so the last part thaws naturally, it can be ok. That said, I have seen ice-capping resulting from this and that can be problematic also. No real black and white here Andy, only shades of grey, ultimately it depends on how much snow you have, what the forcast looks like and the commercial pressure you’re under.
mark heath
must say mark your blogs are just superb and ov great use both in educateing my staff and members!! worste winter i’ve had to work with in 24 years. stressfull !!!!
mark.hunt
Thanks Mark, I’m with you on the stress levels, geez we need this to end !
I think I’ve just about worn out every long-term weather forecasting model trying to see if the pattern is changing anytime soon.
All the best.
Mark
Johnny Evans Ramsdale Park North east Nottingham
Hi Mark, would like your expert opinion on this one please, conditions weren’t right for me to put a preventative fungicide spray on before the snow came down and unfortunately it never froze either. We cleared the greens on friday but received more snow over the weekend. They’ve been covered in snow all weekend and we’ve started to clear them again today. I’ve got 37 greens and should have them all clear by Thursday, i’m just a bit concerned we may get an outbreak of fuzz, how long can they last under snow before we start getting signs of disease? Is there anything else I could do to limit the chances of a serious outbreak? Poa greens, average thatch levels, reasonably good health before the snow came. If we can get to them would you recommend a contact this week. Sorry it’s a bit long winded, got my own suspicions just looking for a second opinion. Thanks Johnny
mark.hunt
Hi Johnny,
Tricky one really and obviously made worse by current conditions.
Looking at temperatures I think you’ll see a continuation of overnight frosts this week, with a slow thaw during the day, and later in the week (into the weekend) this will increase pace a little as winds drop and temperatures rise a little. So I expect the greens to go through alternating freeze and thaw cycles this week, especially now that you’ve cleared them (and I understand why!). So bottom line, I don’t see disease levels rapidly increasing this week, but as we come out of the snow and we go a little milder, then I think we have a higher risk.
My advice would be to try and get a contact onto the greens once they have comne out of the alternating freezing / thaw cycle because even if you spray with something like Iprodione, you won’t get plant uptake into the leaf as growth levels are static at present. When conditions are tricky like this Johnny in terms of fungicide efficacy, I always tank-mix my Iprodione (Surpass Pro putting a Headland hat on) with Liquid Turf Hardener (20L / Ha) because I’ve found the calcium / magnesium nitrate-based formulation appears to increase uptake into the grass plant and we increase disease knock-back.
In past years we’ve seen very rapid increases in temperature going into the spring, but I think this years will be a slower, more gradual increase, unless of course we ‘flip’ under a peak, but I can’t see it.
Hope that helps..
regards
Mark