I’m on my hols this week, so this blog is mainly weather-related, First off, a very hearty welcome back to Unisys Weather, who after months of barracking (cheers Paul), finally resurrected their 10-day weather outlook for Europe. It’s a bit shaky at the moment, but the content is there and that’ll help me to give you better outlook information….Secondly, how was the ‘massive storm’ for you ? – Cue media frenzy about a normal deep autumn Atlantic low that we get at this time of year. We had 38.8mm of rain overnight and yesterday made trout fishing in a boat ‘challenging’, but nothing worse than that…I guess after the lack of forecasting in 1987, when we did have something to talk about, the Met Office, BBC Weather and all don’t want to get caught with their collective wotsits down, so every deep low pressure comes with a health warning, ho hum….
The weather has changed subtlely over the weekend and that’s because the low pressure systems we have been getting up until now have been coming from the south Atlantic, so that means rain and warm, southerly winds. This has meant unprecedented disease pressure. Last week we had a sustained 48 hour period here when the air temperature didn’t drop below 16.7°C. Below is a pic of my weather station at midnight Sunday and then lunchtime Tuesday and it continued this way through Tuesday night as well, you can see the outside temperature and humidity…not good for disease…
As you’ll note from the Unisys graphic above, the change that has taken place is that the low pressure systems are now coming from the west / north-west and that means cooler winds for a start and the loss of those barmy temperatures. It also means the jetstream has begun a journey, edging down into Europe and that’ll allow cooler / cold air to follow over the month to come, if of course it stays there (not certain at all). Now there’s nothing to worry about, this is normal, after all we’re tiptoeing into November and we’ve had nothing so far in terms of cold weather. So onto the weather for this week..
General Weather Situation
Currently we have a band of rain, heavy in places affecting Ireland and the south half of the U.K, draw a line from Shannon to Dublin and from North Wales to The Humber and south of this is affected by rain. Further north it’s more showers, but these will eventually die away in all parts of the U.K to leave a clear, but cool night, with temperatures dropping down to 4-5°C in rural areas (that’s the effect of the change in jetstream position). Temperatures during Monday will be low double figures and the winds will be moderate from the west.
For Tuesday, we have a bit of respite from that rain, with a sunny, cold start for many places and just the chance of some rain affecting the west coasts of Ireland and the U.K in the morning. Later on in the morning, those westerly showers sink southwards to affect northern England and The Midlands. Winds will be again from the west, but it’ll feel cool / cold compared to last week, with temperatures barely hitting double figures, so wrap up well.
For Wednesday, we have potentially one of the driest days of the week for the U.K, cool, (12°C) with sunny interludes, but for Ireland there’s a heavy band of rain pushing in from the west, due to make landfall around rush hour across west Munster / Connacht and this will then push rapidly eastwards across Ireland and into Scotland in time for the evening rush hour. It’ll reach Wales and the south-west by the evening and then push across the U.K overnight into Thursday, fizzling out as it does so…
For Thursday, there’s the likelihood of more rain affecting the west coast of Ireland and the U.K, but inland, it should stay reasonably dry, though you’ve always got the chance of a shower. Further north that chance of rain increases and later on in the day, they’ll be a consolidated rain front affecting Scotland, so continuing wet for you guys I’m afraid. Temperatures will pick up a degree or two as the wind swings round to the south-west, so low teens hopefully.
For the end of the week, we have a dry start (temporarily), but as with the rest of the week, rain is never far away and that manifests itself in the shape of two bands of rain projected to push into the south-west of England and the east coast of Munster / Leinster, early doors on Friday. That rain will then track (/) across the U.K during Friday, mainly affecting the north of England and the south. There’s a chance that The Midlands will be largely un-affected…Temperatures will be low teens and winds again from the south-west, but there’s another deep low lurking for the weekend, so don’t get your hopes up !
The weekend looks like being wet and potentially very windy on Sunday. At present, there’s a band of heavy rain projected to affect Ireland on Saturday and this will push into the U.K by Saturday afternoon / evening, so potentially a very wet and windy start to Sunday and this rain may continue through most of the day, so not great I’m afraid for the north and south of the U.K, though Scotland should escape the worst of it.
Next week looks like being a bit of a re-run of this week as that deep Atlantic low continues to bring wind and rain for the start of the week, so the outlook is unsettled for sure. We have a brief respite on Monday evening before another low rattles in to bring high winds and heavy rain for Tuesday / Wednesday. Later in the week, those winds will moderate and the temperature will pick up a little, but I still expect plenty of showers around…
A very brief one this week, because the sun is shining briefly outside and my Merida beckons..The key points to discuss are of course disease and disease pressure. I’ve already highlighted the high disease pressure we’ve had for the early part of last week and since then we’ve only had one spray day (last Thursday) to do anything about it. I expect the disease pressure to drop a little as the temperature declines, but with the constant moisture it’s never going to be too far away I’m afraid. The best and maybe only spray day for most of the U.K is Wednesday this week, but with the rainfall we’ve had, even reaching greens may be difficult for some 🙂 (For Ireland it’s probably Thursday, but rain will be in from late afternoon)
A good time to spray for worms and Leatherjackeets you’d expect but with the high rainfall there’s a risk of the A.I being taken past the target organism too quickly, so look at your 7-day projected totals for any big spikes in anticipated rainfall and act accordingly.
It is a good time (as commented upon last week) for applying iron onto moss as this is now well and truly wetted up, so if you can crank up the spreader /sprayer, I’d suggest doing so 🙂
As we near the end of October, I’d be interested to get your rainfall stats for the month because I think we’ll see some pretty high totals…
All the best..